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Hürth vs Hennef 05 — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Hürth
Hürth
CANC
13:00
Hennef 05
Hennef 05
5/13/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 28Salus Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Hürth36%
×Draw23%
Hennef 0541%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hürth
1.62
Hennef 05
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 81 away

creates per match

Hürth
1.37
Hennef 05
1.98

allows per match

Hürth
1.46
Hennef 05
1.86

finishing

Hürth+0.00on par
Hennef 05+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hürth ↓

Hennef 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hürth or draw
59%
Hürth or Hennef 05
77%
Draw or Hennef 05
64%

Winning margin

Hürth wins by 2+
18%
Hennef 05 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Hürth 1+ goals
80%
Hürth 2+ goals
48%
Hürth 3+ goals
22%
Hennef 05 1+ goals
82%
Hennef 05 2+ goals
51%
Hennef 05 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Hürth (draw refunded)
47%
Hennef 05 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hürth at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Hennef 05 away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.86 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hürth attack 1.37 + Hennef 05 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.62

Hennef 05 attack 1.98 + Hürth defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hürth scores more
36%
level
23%
Hennef 05 scores more
41%

Hennef 05 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hennef 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hürth host Hennef 05

May 13, 2021: Hürth take on Hennef 05 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hürth host Hennef 05 at Salus Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.