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Hürth vs Fortuna Köln II — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Hürth
Hürth
CANC
14:00
Fortuna Köln II
Fortuna Köln II
2/28/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 16Salus Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Hürth41%
×Draw24%
Fortuna Köln II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hürth
1.63
Fortuna Köln II
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 79 away

creates per match

Hürth
1.37
Fortuna Köln II
1.54

allows per match

Hürth
1.46
Fortuna Köln II
1.89

finishing

Hürth+0.00on par
Fortuna Köln II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hürth ↓

Fortuna Köln II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hürth or draw
65%
Hürth or Fortuna Köln II
76%
Draw or Fortuna Köln II
59%

Winning margin

Hürth wins by 2+
21%
Fortuna Köln II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hürth 1+ goals
80%
Hürth 2+ goals
48%
Hürth 3+ goals
22%
Fortuna Köln II 1+ goals
78%
Fortuna Köln II 2+ goals
44%
Fortuna Köln II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hürth (draw refunded)
54%
Fortuna Köln II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hürth at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Fortuna Köln II away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hürth attack 1.37 + Fortuna Köln II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.63

Fortuna Köln II attack 1.54 + Hürth defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hürth scores more
41%
level
24%
Fortuna Köln II scores more
35%

Hürth at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hürth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hürth face Fortuna Köln II (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)

Oberliga - Mittelrhein returns with Hürth hosting Fortuna Köln II. Match starts February 28, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hürth host Fortuna Köln II at Salus Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.