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Huracan Las Heras vs Sportivo Peñarol — Torneo Federal A 2018

Huracan Las Heras
Huracan Las Heras
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sportivo Peñarol
Sportivo Peñarol
6/18/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 14Estadio General San Martín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Huracan Las Heras51%
×Draw28%
Sportivo Peñarol22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracan Las Heras
1.38
Sportivo Peñarol
0.80

Huracan Las Heras creates 72% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 62 away

creates per match

Huracan Las Heras
1.10
Sportivo Peñarol
0.87

allows per match

Huracan Las Heras
0.73
Sportivo Peñarol
1.66

finishing

Huracan Las Heras+0.00on par
Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan Las Heras ↓

Sportivo Peñarol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Huracan Las Heras or draw
78%
Huracan Las Heras or Sportivo Peñarol
72%
Draw or Sportivo Peñarol
49%

Winning margin

Huracan Las Heras wins by 2+
25%
Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Huracan Las Heras 1+ goals
75%
Huracan Las Heras 2+ goals
40%
Huracan Las Heras 3+ goals
16%
Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals
55%
Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals
19%
Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Huracan Las Heras (draw refunded)
70%
Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan Las Heras at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.73 · 108 matches

Sportivo Peñarol away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan Las Heras attack 1.10 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sportivo Peñarol attack 0.87 + Huracan Las Heras defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Huracan Las Heras scores more
51%
level
28%
Sportivo Peñarol scores more
22%

Huracan Las Heras at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Huracan Las Heras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Huracan Las Heras 0–0 Sportivo Peñarol

Huracan Las Heras and Sportivo Peñarol drew 0-0 in Torneo Federal A on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio General San Martín in Las Heras, Provincia de Mendoza.