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Huracan Las Heras vs Sportivo Desamparados — Torneo Federal A 2018

Huracan Las Heras
Huracan Las Heras
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sportivo Desamparados
Sportivo Desamparados
10/6/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 3 - 6Estadio General San Martín (Las Heras, Provincia de Mendoza)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Huracan Las Heras49%
×Draw30%
Sportivo Desamparados21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracan Las Heras
1.22
Sportivo Desamparados
0.70

Huracan Las Heras creates 74% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 59 away

creates per match

Huracan Las Heras
1.10
Sportivo Desamparados
0.66

allows per match

Huracan Las Heras
0.73
Sportivo Desamparados
1.34

finishing

Huracan Las Heras+0.00on par
Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan Las Heras ↓

Sportivo Desamparados →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Huracan Las Heras or draw
79%
Huracan Las Heras or Sportivo Desamparados
70%
Draw or Sportivo Desamparados
51%

Winning margin

Huracan Las Heras wins by 2+
22%
Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Huracan Las Heras 1+ goals
70%
Huracan Las Heras 2+ goals
34%
Huracan Las Heras 3+ goals
12%
Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals
50%
Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals
16%
Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Huracan Las Heras (draw refunded)
70%
Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan Las Heras at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.73 · 108 matches

Sportivo Desamparados away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.34 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan Las Heras attack 1.10 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Sportivo Desamparados attack 0.66 + Huracan Las Heras defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Huracan Las Heras scores more
49%
level
30%
Sportivo Desamparados scores more
21%

Huracan Las Heras at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Huracan Las Heras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Huracan Las Heras 1–2 Sportivo Desamparados

Sportivo Desamparados beat Huracan Las Heras 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio General San Martín (Las Heras, Provincia de Mendoza).