Huracan Las Heras 2–1 Estudiantes S.l.

Huracan Las Heras

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Estudiantes S.l.

P. Palacios 70', 42'

L. Do Campo 54'

3/23/2024

Torneo Federal A · Group 2 - 1Estadio General San Martín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Huracan Las Heras47%

×Draw30%

Estudiantes S.l.22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Huracan Las HerasExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes S.l.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.72

Huracan Las Heras

1.20

Estudiantes S.l.

0.72

Huracan Las Heras creates 67% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 103 away

1.10

creates per match

0.72

0.73

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Huracan Las Heras

1.10

Estudiantes S.l.

0.72

allows per match

Huracan Las Heras

0.73

Estudiantes S.l.

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huracan Las Heras+0.00on par

Estudiantes S.l.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan Las Heras ↓

Estudiantes S.l. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Huracan Las Heras or draw

78%

Huracan Las Heras or Estudiantes S.l.

70%

Draw or Estudiantes S.l.

53%

Winning margin

Huracan Las Heras wins by 2+

21%

Estudiantes S.l. wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Huracan Las Heras 1+ goals

70%

Huracan Las Heras 2+ goals

34%

Huracan Las Heras 3+ goals

12%

Estudiantes S.l. 1+ goals

51%

Estudiantes S.l. 2+ goals

16%

Estudiantes S.l. 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Huracan Las Heras (draw refunded)

68%

Estudiantes S.l. (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan Las Heras at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.73 · 108 matches

Estudiantes S.l. away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.30 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan Las Heras attack 1.10 + Estudiantes S.l. defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Estudiantes S.l. attack 0.72 + Huracan Las Heras defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Huracan Las Heras scores more

47%

level

30%

Estudiantes S.l. scores more

22%

Huracan Las Heras at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Huracan Las Heras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

Á. Córdoba← J. Trinidad

42'

P. Palacios

46'

R. Valdeón← S. Mocdece

54'

L. Do Campo

62'

T. Silva← A. Blanco

62'

T. Marchiori← J. Corvalán

69'

F. Flores← L. Do Campo

70'

P. Palacios

75'

M. Castro Zapata← N. Sandoval

80'

J. Bustamante← T. Hernández

80'

F. Lucero← F. Alaggia

85'

R. Colucci← L. Villalba

85'

H. Tifner← N. Alí

Huracan

Estudiantes

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: A. Abaurre

62'▲T. Silva←▼A. Blanco

62'▲T. Marchiori←▼J. Corvalán

75'▲M. Castro Zapata←▼N. Sandoval

85'▲R. Colucci←▼L. Villalba

85'▲H. Tifner←▼N. Alí

Huracan Las Heras substitutes

SilvaMarchioriZapataColucciTifner

Manager: C. Zabala

40'▲Á. Córdoba←▼J. Trinidad

46'▲R. Valdeón←▼S. Mocdece

69'▲F. Flores←▼L. Do Campo

80'▲J. Bustamante←▼T. Hernández

80'▲F. Lucero←▼F. Alaggia

Estudiantes S.l. substitutes

CórdobaValdeónFloresBustamanteLucero

Match Recap: Huracan Las Heras vs Estudiantes S.l.

Huracan Las Heras beat Estudiantes S.l. 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on March 23, 2024.

Goals: P. Palacios (42', 70'), L. Do Campo (54').

The match was played at Estadio General San Martín in Las Heras, Provincia de Mendoza.

Huracan Las Heras vs Estudiantes S.l. — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Huracan Las Heras vs Estudiantes S.l.