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Huntsville City vs Orlando City II — MLS Next Pro 2026

Huntsville City
Huntsville City
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Orlando City II
Orlando City II
3/23/2024MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 2Wicks Family Field at Joe Davis Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Huntsville City54%
×Draw20%
Orlando City II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huntsville City
2.30
Orlando City II
1.58

Huntsville City creates 46% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 50 away

creates per match

Huntsville City
2.28
Orlando City II
1.48

allows per match

Huntsville City
1.69
Orlando City II
2.32

finishing

Huntsville City+0.00on par
Orlando City II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huntsville City ↓

Orlando City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Huntsville City or draw
74%
Huntsville City or Orlando City II
80%
Draw or Orlando City II
46%

Winning margin

Huntsville City wins by 2+
33%
Orlando City II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Huntsville City 1+ goals
90%
Huntsville City 2+ goals
67%
Huntsville City 3+ goals
40%
Orlando City II 1+ goals
79%
Orlando City II 2+ goals
47%
Orlando City II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Huntsville City (draw refunded)
67%
Orlando City II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huntsville City at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.69 · 36 matches

Orlando City II away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.32 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huntsville City attack 2.28 + Orlando City II defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.30

Orlando City II attack 1.48 + Huntsville City defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Huntsville City scores more
54%
level
20%
Orlando City II scores more
26%

Huntsville City at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Huntsville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Huntsville City 1 – 1 Orlando City II

Huntsville City and Orlando City II drew 1-1 in MLS Next Pro on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Wicks Family Field at Joe Davis Stadium in Huntsville, Alabama.