Humpolec 1–3 Start Brno: Result & Stats

Humpolec

FT

1 – 3

Start Brno

8/30/2020

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 4Stadion A.F.C. Humpolec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Humpolec30%

×Draw22%

Start Brno47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HumpolecExpected goals in this matchStart Brno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.89

Humpolec

1.48

Start Brno

1.89

Start Brno creates 28% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 37 away

1.65

creates per match

2.19

1.59

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Humpolec

1.65

Start Brno

2.19

allows per match

Humpolec

1.59

Start Brno

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Humpolec+0.00on par

Start Brno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humpolec ↓

Start Brno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Humpolec or draw

53%

Humpolec or Start Brno

78%

Draw or Start Brno

70%

Winning margin

Humpolec wins by 2+

14%

Start Brno wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Humpolec 1+ goals

77%

Humpolec 2+ goals

43%

Humpolec 3+ goals

19%

Start Brno 1+ goals

85%

Start Brno 2+ goals

56%

Start Brno 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Humpolec (draw refunded)

39%

Start Brno (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humpolec at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.59 · 80 matches

Start Brno away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humpolec attack 1.65 + Start Brno defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.48

Start Brno attack 2.19 + Humpolec defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Humpolec scores more

30%

level

22%

Start Brno scores more

47%

Start Brno at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Start Brno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff