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Humenné vs Tatran Prešov — 2. liga 2019

Humenné
Humenné
Preview
15:00
Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
7/25/20262. liga2. liga · Round 1
Big match
37%
Tatran Prešov
model favours
35%28%37%

Humenné score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Humenné35%
×Draw28%
Tatran Prešov37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humenné
1.18
Tatran Prešov
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 45 away

creates per match

Humenné
1.28
Tatran Prešov
1.47

allows per match

Humenné
0.97
Tatran Prešov
1.07

finishing

Humenné+0.00on par
Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humenné ↓

Tatran Prešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Humenné or draw
63%
Humenné or Tatran Prešov
72%
Draw or Tatran Prešov
65%

Winning margin

Humenné wins by 2+
15%
Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Humenné 1+ goals
69%
Humenné 2+ goals
33%
Humenné 3+ goals
12%
Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
70%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
34%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Humenné (draw refunded)
49%
Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humenné at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 58 matches

Tatran Prešov away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.07 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humenné attack 1.28 + Tatran Prešov defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Tatran Prešov attack 1.47 + Humenné defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Humenné scores more
35%
level
28%
Tatran Prešov scores more
37%

Tatran Prešov at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 80% of Humenné’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 80% of Humenné’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Humenné
LLWWD
Prešov
DDLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Humenné host Tatran Prešov

July 25, 2026: Humenné take on Tatran Prešov in 2. liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.