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Humenné vs Lokomotíva Zvolen — 2. liga 2019

Humenné
Humenné
Preview
15:00
Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
8/8/20262. liga2. liga · Round 3
44%
Humenné
model favours
44%27%29%
1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Humenné44%
×Draw27%
Lokomotíva Zvolen29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humenné
1.38
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.07

Humenné creates 29% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 30 away

creates per match

Humenné
1.28
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.17

allows per match

Humenné
0.97
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.47

finishing

Humenné+0.00on par
Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humenné ↓

Lokomotíva Zvolen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Humenné or draw
71%
Humenné or Lokomotíva Zvolen
73%
Draw or Lokomotíva Zvolen
56%

Winning margin

Humenné wins by 2+
21%
Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Humenné 1+ goals
75%
Humenné 2+ goals
40%
Humenné 3+ goals
16%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
66%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
29%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Humenné (draw refunded)
60%
Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humenné at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 58 matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humenné attack 1.28 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 1.17 + Humenné defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Humenné scores more
44%
level
27%
Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
29%

Humenné at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Humenné will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Humenné
LWWDL
Zvolen
DDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Humenné face Lokomotíva Zvolen (2. liga)

2. liga returns with Humenné hosting Lokomotíva Zvolen. Match starts August 8, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.