Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Humble Lions vs Cavalier — Premier League 2019

Humble Lions
Humble Lions
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cavalier
Cavalier
1/30/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Effortville Community Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Humble Lions31%
×Draw29%
Cavalier41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humble Lions
1.02
Cavalier
1.23

Cavalier creates 21% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 106 away

creates per match

Humble Lions
1.10
Cavalier
1.43

allows per match

Humble Lions
1.04
Cavalier
0.93

finishing

Humble Lions+0.00on par
Cavalier+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humble Lions ↓

Cavalier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Humble Lions or draw
59%
Humble Lions or Cavalier
71%
Draw or Cavalier
69%

Winning margin

Humble Lions wins by 2+
11%
Cavalier wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Humble Lions 1+ goals
64%
Humble Lions 2+ goals
27%
Humble Lions 3+ goals
8%
Cavalier 1+ goals
71%
Cavalier 2+ goals
35%
Cavalier 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Humble Lions (draw refunded)
43%
Cavalier (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humble Lions at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.04 · 79 matches

Cavalier away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humble Lions attack 1.10 + Cavalier defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Cavalier attack 1.43 + Humble Lions defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Humble Lions scores more
31%
level
29%
Cavalier scores more
41%

Cavalier at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cavalier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Humble Lions vs Cavalier

Humble Lions beat Cavalier 2-1 in Premier League on January 30, 2020.

The match was played at Effortville Community Centre in May Pen.