Humble Lions 1–1 Arnett Gardens: Result & Stats

Humble Lions

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Arnett Gardens

3/19/2023

Premier League · Round 19Effortville Community Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Humble Lions31%

×Draw27%

Arnett Gardens42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Humble LionsExpected goals in this matchArnett Gardens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.38

Humble Lions

1.15

Arnett Gardens

1.38

Arnett Gardens creates 20% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 103 away

1.10

creates per match

1.71

1.04

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Humble Lions

1.10

Arnett Gardens

1.71

allows per match

Humble Lions

1.04

Arnett Gardens

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Humble Lions+0.00on par

Arnett Gardens+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humble Lions ↓

Arnett Gardens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Humble Lions or draw

58%

Humble Lions or Arnett Gardens

73%

Draw or Arnett Gardens

69%

Winning margin

Humble Lions wins by 2+

13%

Arnett Gardens wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Humble Lions 1+ goals

68%

Humble Lions 2+ goals

32%

Humble Lions 3+ goals

11%

Arnett Gardens 1+ goals

75%

Arnett Gardens 2+ goals

40%

Arnett Gardens 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Humble Lions (draw refunded)

43%

Arnett Gardens (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humble Lions at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.04 · 79 matches

Arnett Gardens away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humble Lions attack 1.10 + Arnett Gardens defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Arnett Gardens attack 1.71 + Humble Lions defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Humble Lions scores more

31%

level

27%

Arnett Gardens scores more

42%

Arnett Gardens at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arnett Gardens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff