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Huila vs Union Magdalena — Primera A 2018

Huila
Huila
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena
1/29/2019Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 2Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Huila47%
×Draw27%
Union Magdalena26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huila
1.40
Union Magdalena
0.95

Huila creates 47% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 83 away

creates per match

Huila
1.13
Union Magdalena
0.63

allows per match

Huila
1.26
Union Magdalena
1.67

finishing

Huila+0.00on par
Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huila ↓

Union Magdalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Huila or draw
74%
Huila or Union Magdalena
73%
Draw or Union Magdalena
53%

Winning margin

Huila wins by 2+
23%
Union Magdalena wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Huila 1+ goals
75%
Huila 2+ goals
41%
Huila 3+ goals
17%
Union Magdalena 1+ goals
61%
Union Magdalena 2+ goals
25%
Union Magdalena 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Huila (draw refunded)
65%
Union Magdalena (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huila at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 70 matches

Union Magdalena away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.67 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huila attack 1.13 + Union Magdalena defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Union Magdalena attack 0.63 + Huila defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Huila scores more
47%
level
27%
Union Magdalena scores more
26%

Huila at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Huila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huila vs Union Magdalena

Huila and Union Magdalena drew 1-1 in Primera A on January 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid in Neiva.