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Huila vs Tigres FC — Primera B 2018

Huila
Huila
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tigres FC
Tigres FC
5/3/2022Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 15Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Huila54%
×Draw27%
Tigres FC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huila
1.44
Tigres FC
0.73

Huila creates 97% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 141 away

creates per match

Huila
1.53
Tigres FC
0.72

allows per match

Huila
0.75
Tigres FC
1.35

finishing

Huila+0.00on par
Tigres FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huila ↓

Tigres FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Huila or draw
81%
Huila or Tigres FC
73%
Draw or Tigres FC
46%

Winning margin

Huila wins by 2+
27%
Tigres FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Huila 1+ goals
76%
Huila 2+ goals
42%
Huila 3+ goals
18%
Tigres FC 1+ goals
52%
Tigres FC 2+ goals
17%
Tigres FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Huila (draw refunded)
74%
Tigres FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huila at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.75 · 89 matches

Tigres FC away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.35 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huila attack 1.53 + Tigres FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.44

Tigres FC attack 0.72 + Huila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Huila scores more
54%
level
27%
Tigres FC scores more
19%

Huila at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Huila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Huila 0–0 Tigres FC

Huila and Tigres FC drew 0-0 in Primera B on May 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid in Neiva.