Huila 0–2 Tigres FC: Result & Stats | Copa Colombia

Huila

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tigres FC

3/3/2022

Copa Colombia · 2nd RoundEstadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Huila43%

×Draw33%

Tigres FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuilaExpected goals in this matchTigres FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.71

Huila

1.04

Tigres FC

0.71

Huila creates 46% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 18 away

0.91

creates per match

0.50

0.91

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Huila

0.91

Tigres FC

0.50

allows per match

Huila

0.91

Tigres FC

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huila+0.00on par

Tigres FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huila ↓

Tigres FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

52%48%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Huila or draw

75%

Huila or Tigres FC

67%

Draw or Tigres FC

57%

Winning margin

Huila wins by 2+

17%

Tigres FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Huila 1+ goals

65%

Huila 2+ goals

28%

Huila 3+ goals

9%

Tigres FC 1+ goals

51%

Tigres FC 2+ goals

16%

Tigres FC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Huila (draw refunded)

63%

Tigres FC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huila at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Tigres FC away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huila attack 0.91 + Tigres FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

Tigres FC attack 0.50 + Huila defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Huila scores more

43%

level

33%

Tigres FC scores more

25%

Huila at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Huila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff