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Huila vs Real Santander — Primera B 2018

Huila
Huila
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Real Santander
Real Santander
2/6/2020Primera BPrimera B · Round 1Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Huila57%
×Draw25%
Real Santander17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huila
1.58
Real Santander
0.74

Huila creates 114% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 126 away

creates per match

Huila
1.53
Real Santander
0.73

allows per match

Huila
0.75
Real Santander
1.62

finishing

Huila+0.00on par
Real Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huila ↓

Real Santander →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Huila or draw
83%
Huila or Real Santander
75%
Draw or Real Santander
43%

Winning margin

Huila wins by 2+
31%
Real Santander wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Huila 1+ goals
79%
Huila 2+ goals
47%
Huila 3+ goals
21%
Real Santander 1+ goals
52%
Real Santander 2+ goals
17%
Real Santander 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Huila (draw refunded)
77%
Real Santander (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huila at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.75 · 89 matches

Real Santander away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.62 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huila attack 1.53 + Real Santander defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Real Santander attack 0.73 + Huila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Huila scores more
57%
level
25%
Real Santander scores more
17%

Huila at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Huila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huila vs Real Santander

Huila and Real Santander drew 1-1 in Primera B on February 6, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid in Neiva.