Huila 2–0 Patriotas: Result & Stats | Primera A

Huila

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Patriotas

3/25/2018

Primera A · Apertura - 10Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Huila46%

×Draw27%

Patriotas27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuilaExpected goals in this matchPatriotas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.98

Huila

1.38

Patriotas

0.98

Huila creates 41% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 109 away

1.13

creates per match

0.70

1.26

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Huila

1.13

Patriotas

0.70

allows per match

Huila

1.26

Patriotas

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huila+0.00on par

Patriotas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huila ↓

Patriotas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Huila or draw

73%

Huila or Patriotas

73%

Draw or Patriotas

54%

Winning margin

Huila wins by 2+

22%

Patriotas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Huila 1+ goals

75%

Huila 2+ goals

40%

Huila 3+ goals

16%

Patriotas 1+ goals

62%

Patriotas 2+ goals

26%

Patriotas 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Huila (draw refunded)

63%

Patriotas (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huila at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 70 matches

Patriotas away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.63 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huila attack 1.13 + Patriotas defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Patriotas attack 0.70 + Huila defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Huila scores more

46%

level

27%

Patriotas scores more

27%

Huila at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Huila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff