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Huila vs Once Caldas — Primera A 2018

Huila
Huila
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Once Caldas
Once Caldas
8/19/2018Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 5Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Huila39%
×Draw29%
Once Caldas32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huila
1.19
Once Caldas
1.06

Huila creates 12% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 168 away

creates per match

Huila
1.13
Once Caldas
0.86

allows per match

Huila
1.26
Once Caldas
1.26

finishing

Huila+0.00on par
Once Caldas+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huila ↓

Once Caldas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Huila or draw
68%
Huila or Once Caldas
71%
Draw or Once Caldas
61%

Winning margin

Huila wins by 2+
17%
Once Caldas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Huila 1+ goals
70%
Huila 2+ goals
33%
Huila 3+ goals
12%
Once Caldas 1+ goals
65%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
29%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Huila (draw refunded)
55%
Once Caldas (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huila at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 70 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.26 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huila attack 1.13 + Once Caldas defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Once Caldas attack 0.86 + Huila defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Huila scores more
39%
level
29%
Once Caldas scores more
32%

Huila at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Huila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huila vs Once Caldas

Once Caldas beat Huila 2-1 in Primera A on August 19, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid in Neiva.