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Huila vs Llaneros — Copa Colombia 2019

Huila
Huila
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Llaneros
Llaneros
2/21/2020Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 1st RoundEstadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid (Neiva)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Huila36%
×Draw35%
Llaneros29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huila
0.86
Llaneros
0.74

Huila creates 16% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

creates per match

Huila
0.91
Llaneros
0.56

allows per match

Huila
0.91
Llaneros
0.81

finishing

Huila+0.00on par
Llaneros+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huila ↓

Llaneros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–115%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Huila or draw
71%
Huila or Llaneros
65%
Draw or Llaneros
64%

Winning margin

Huila wins by 2+
12%
Llaneros wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Huila 1+ goals
58%
Huila 2+ goals
21%
Huila 3+ goals
6%
Llaneros 1+ goals
52%
Llaneros 2+ goals
17%
Llaneros 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Huila (draw refunded)
55%
Llaneros (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huila at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Llaneros away — creates 0.56, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huila attack 0.91 + Llaneros defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.86

Llaneros attack 0.56 + Huila defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Huila scores more
36%
level
35%
Llaneros scores more
29%

Huila at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Huila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Huila 0–2 Llaneros

Llaneros beat Huila 2-0 in Copa Colombia on February 21, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid (Neiva).