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Huila vs Leones FC — Primera A 2018

Huila
Huila
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Leones FC
Leones FC
9/1/2018Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 7Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Huila44%
×Draw28%
Leones FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huila
1.33
Leones FC
1.02

Huila creates 30% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 19 away

creates per match

Huila
1.13
Leones FC
0.79

allows per match

Huila
1.26
Leones FC
1.53

finishing

Huila+0.00on par
Leones FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huila ↓

Leones FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Huila or draw
71%
Huila or Leones FC
72%
Draw or Leones FC
56%

Winning margin

Huila wins by 2+
20%
Leones FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Huila 1+ goals
74%
Huila 2+ goals
38%
Huila 3+ goals
15%
Leones FC 1+ goals
64%
Leones FC 2+ goals
27%
Leones FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Huila (draw refunded)
60%
Leones FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huila at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 70 matches

Leones FC away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huila attack 1.13 + Leones FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Leones FC attack 0.79 + Huila defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Huila scores more
44%
level
28%
Leones FC scores more
29%

Huila at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Huila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huila vs Leones FC

Leones FC beat Huila 3-2 in Primera A on September 1, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro in Ibague.