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Huila vs Deportes Tolima — Primera A 2018

Huila
Huila
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima
9/14/2021Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 9Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Huila32%
×Draw28%
Deportes Tolima40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huila
1.07
Deportes Tolima
1.24

Deportes Tolima creates 16% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 196 away

creates per match

Huila
1.13
Deportes Tolima
1.22

allows per match

Huila
1.26
Deportes Tolima
1.01

finishing

Huila+0.00on par
Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huila ↓

Deportes Tolima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Huila or draw
60%
Huila or Deportes Tolima
72%
Draw or Deportes Tolima
68%

Winning margin

Huila wins by 2+
12%
Deportes Tolima wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Huila 1+ goals
66%
Huila 2+ goals
29%
Huila 3+ goals
9%
Deportes Tolima 1+ goals
71%
Deportes Tolima 2+ goals
35%
Deportes Tolima 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Huila (draw refunded)
44%
Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huila at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 70 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 196 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huila attack 1.13 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Deportes Tolima attack 1.22 + Huila defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Huila scores more
32%
level
28%
Deportes Tolima scores more
40%

Deportes Tolima at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huila vs Deportes Tolima

Deportes Tolima beat Huila 2-1 in Primera A on September 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid in Neiva.