Huila 4–0 Bogota FC: Result & Stats | Primera B

Huila

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bogota FC

1/25/2021

Primera B · Apertura - 2Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Huila56%

×Draw25%

Bogota FC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuilaExpected goals in this matchBogota FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.80

Huila

1.57

Bogota FC

0.80

Huila creates 96% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 138 away

1.53

creates per match

0.86

0.75

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Huila

1.53

Bogota FC

0.86

allows per match

Huila

0.75

Bogota FC

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huila+0.00on par

Bogota FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huila ↓

Bogota FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Huila or draw

81%

Huila or Bogota FC

75%

Draw or Bogota FC

44%

Winning margin

Huila wins by 2+

29%

Bogota FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Huila 1+ goals

79%

Huila 2+ goals

46%

Huila 3+ goals

21%

Bogota FC 1+ goals

55%

Bogota FC 2+ goals

19%

Bogota FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Huila (draw refunded)

74%

Bogota FC (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huila at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.75 · 89 matches

Bogota FC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.61 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huila attack 1.53 + Bogota FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.57

Bogota FC attack 0.86 + Huila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Huila scores more

56%

level

25%

Bogota FC scores more

19%

Huila at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Huila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff