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Huila vs Atletico Nacional — Primera A 2018

Huila
Huila
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
5/30/2018Primera APrimera A · Apertura - Semi-finalsEstadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Huila33%
×Draw28%
Atletico Nacional39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huila
1.10
Atletico Nacional
1.24

Atletico Nacional creates 13% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 195 away

creates per match

Huila
1.13
Atletico Nacional
1.22

allows per match

Huila
1.26
Atletico Nacional
1.08

finishing

Huila+0.00on par
Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huila ↓

Atletico Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Huila or draw
61%
Huila or Atletico Nacional
72%
Draw or Atletico Nacional
67%

Winning margin

Huila wins by 2+
13%
Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Huila 1+ goals
67%
Huila 2+ goals
30%
Huila 3+ goals
10%
Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
71%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
35%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Huila (draw refunded)
45%
Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huila at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 70 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 195 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huila attack 1.13 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Atletico Nacional attack 1.22 + Huila defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Huila scores more
33%
level
28%
Atletico Nacional scores more
39%

Atletico Nacional at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Huila 0–0 Atletico Nacional

Huila and Atletico Nacional drew 0-0 in Primera A on May 30, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin in Bogota.