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Huétor Vega vs Málaga II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huétor Vega
Huétor Vega
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Málaga II
Málaga II
11/10/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 13Estadio Las Viñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Huétor Vega36%
×Draw27%
Málaga II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huétor Vega
1.27
Málaga II
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 92 away

creates per match

Huétor Vega
1.43
Málaga II
1.35

allows per match

Huétor Vega
1.21
Málaga II
1.10

finishing

Huétor Vega+0.00on par
Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Vega ↓

Málaga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Huétor Vega or draw
63%
Huétor Vega or Málaga II
73%
Draw or Málaga II
64%

Winning margin

Huétor Vega wins by 2+
16%
Málaga II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Huétor Vega 1+ goals
72%
Huétor Vega 2+ goals
36%
Huétor Vega 3+ goals
14%
Málaga II 1+ goals
72%
Málaga II 2+ goals
37%
Málaga II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Huétor Vega (draw refunded)
50%
Málaga II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huétor Vega at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Vega attack 1.43 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Málaga II attack 1.35 + Huétor Vega defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Huétor Vega scores more
36%
level
27%
Málaga II scores more
37%

Málaga II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Huétor Vega 2–1 Málaga II

Huétor Vega beat Málaga II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Las Viñas in Huétor Vega.