Huesca 0–1 Sporting Gijon: Result & Stats

Huesca

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Gijon

Nacho Méndez 49'

10/1/2023

Segunda División · Round 8Estadio El Alcoraz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Huesca43%

×Draw29%

Sporting Gijon28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuescaExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.91

Huesca

1.21

Sporting Gijon

0.91

Huesca creates 33% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 169 away

1.29

creates per match

0.90

0.91

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Huesca

1.29

Sporting Gijon

0.90

allows per match

Huesca

0.91

Sporting Gijon

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huesca+0.00on par

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca ↓

Sporting Gijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Huesca or draw

72%

Huesca or Sporting Gijon

71%

Draw or Sporting Gijon

57%

Winning margin

Huesca wins by 2+

19%

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Huesca 1+ goals

70%

Huesca 2+ goals

34%

Huesca 3+ goals

12%

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

60%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

23%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Huesca (draw refunded)

61%

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.91 · 129 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.14 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca attack 1.29 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sporting Gijon attack 0.90 + Huesca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Huesca scores more

43%

level

29%

Sporting Gijon scores more

28%

Huesca at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Huesca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Nacho Méndez

Sporting Gijon · M

8.0

Match Events

1'

Javi Mier

41'

Roque Mesa

49'

Nacho Méndez↳ H. Hassan

57'

K. Hashimoto← Javi Mier

57'

Joaquín Muñoz← A. Kanté

61'

Iván Martos

68'

Oscar Sielva

72'

Dani Queipo← Víctor Campuzano

72'

Christian Rivera← Roque Mesa

76'

Ignasi Vilarrasa← Iván Martos

76'

J. Bolívar← S. Obeng

79'

Pablo García← Cote

79'

U. Đurđević← H. Hassan

84'

Uroš Đurđević

87'

Carlos Izquierdoz

87'

Diego Aznar← Hugo Vallejo

90+6'

90+2'

90+2'

90+6'

90+2'

90+2'

90+3'

Guille Rosas← Gaspar Campos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuescaSporting

Overview

48%Possession52%

6Total Shots13

9Corners8

11Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots13

2On Target6

3Off Target3

1Blocked4

5Inside Box8

1Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

370Total Passes416

300Accurate Passes342

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls15

6Yellow Cards6

3Offsides3

Match Recap: Huesca vs Sporting Gijon

Sporting Gijon beat Huesca 1-0 in Segunda División on October 1, 2023.

Goals: Nacho Méndez (49').

Sporting Gijon controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio El Alcoraz in Huesca.

Huesca vs Sporting Gijon — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Huesca vs Sporting Gijon