Huesca 1–1 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Huesca

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mirandes

Javi Martínez 55'

Carlos Martín 84' (pen)

9/3/2023

Segunda División · Round 4Estadio El Alcoraz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Huesca46%

×Draw25%

Mirandes29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuescaExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.22

Huesca

1.59

Mirandes

1.22

Huesca creates 30% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.74

creates per match

1.05

1.39

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Huesca

1.74

Mirandes

1.05

allows per match

Huesca

1.39

Mirandes

1.44

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Huesca-0.34scores less

Mirandes+0.08on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Huesca or draw

71%

Huesca or Mirandes

75%

Draw or Mirandes

54%

Winning margin

Huesca wins by 2+

23%

Mirandes wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Huesca 1+ goals

80%

Huesca 2+ goals

47%

Huesca 3+ goals

21%

Mirandes 1+ goals

70%

Mirandes 2+ goals

34%

Mirandes 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Huesca (draw refunded)

61%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.39 · 5 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca attack 1.74 + Mirandes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.59

Mirandes attack 1.05 + Huesca defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Huesca scores more

46%

level

25%

Mirandes scores more

29%

Huesca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Huesca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

Pablo Ramón

Mirandes · D

7.7

Match Events

6'

15'

30'

35'

46'

46'

Ignasi Vilarrasa← Iván Martos

55'

Javi Martínez

56'

Barbu← Sergio Barcia

56'

I. Durdov← Alan Godoy

67'

E. Lombardo← Javi Martínez

67'

Rafa Tresaco← Joaquín Muñoz

71'

Miguel Baeza← I. Chaira

71'

Rubén Sánchez← Diego Moreno

80'

Jorge Pulido

82'

Jorge Pulido

82'

Jorge Pulido

84'

Carlos MartínPenalty

86'

Juanjo Nieto← Gerard Valentín

89'

Pablo Tomeo← Tachi

90'

Oscar Sielva

90+7'

Álvaro Sanz Catalán

90'

Alejandro Barbudo Barbu

90+3'

Álex Balboa← Iker Kortajarena

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuescaMirandes

Overview

36%Possession64%

15Total Shots13

9Corners5

15Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots13

3On Target3

6Off Target7

6Blocked3

7Inside Box10

8Outside Box3

Passing

36%Possession64%

233Total Passes430

142Accurate Passes346

61%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls10

5Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

1Offsides4

Match Recap: Huesca vs Mirandes

Huesca and Mirandes drew 1-1 in Segunda División on September 3, 2023.

Goals: Javi Martínez (55'), Carlos Martín (84' pen).

Mirandes controlled possession (64%) and registered 13 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio El Alcoraz in Huesca.

Huesca vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Huesca vs Mirandes