Huesca 1–0 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Huesca

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mirandes

S. Obeng 73'

2/4/2023

Segunda División · Round 26Estadio El Alcoraz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Huesca46%

×Draw25%

Mirandes29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuescaExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.22

Huesca

1.59

Mirandes

1.22

Huesca creates 30% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.74

creates per match

1.05

1.39

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Huesca

1.74

Mirandes

1.05

allows per match

Huesca

1.39

Mirandes

1.44

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Huesca-0.34scores less

Mirandes+0.08on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Huesca or draw

71%

Huesca or Mirandes

75%

Draw or Mirandes

54%

Winning margin

Huesca wins by 2+

23%

Mirandes wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Huesca 1+ goals

80%

Huesca 2+ goals

47%

Huesca 3+ goals

21%

Mirandes 1+ goals

70%

Mirandes 2+ goals

34%

Mirandes 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Huesca (draw refunded)

61%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.39 · 5 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca attack 1.74 + Mirandes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.59

Mirandes attack 1.05 + Huesca defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Huesca scores more

46%

level

25%

Mirandes scores more

29%

Huesca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Huesca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Roberto López

Mirandes · M

7.7

Match Events

47'

Oriol Rey

60'

David Timor← K. Hashimoto

60'

Gerard Valentín← José Ángel Carrillo

60'

Javi Martínez← Juan Carlos Real

63'

Manu García← Oriol Rey

65'

Jorge Pulido

73'

S. Obeng↳ Jorge Pulido

76'

Óscar Pinchi← Beñat Prados

76'

Javier Llabrés← Álex Martín

77'

Ignasi Vilarrasa← S. Obeng

77'

A. Kanté← Joaquín Muñoz

82'

Jofre Carreras← Juanlu Sánchez

84'

Raúl Navas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuescaMirandes

Overview

40%Possession60%

7Total Shots9

7Corners3

15Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots9

2On Target3

2Off Target2

3Blocked4

4Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

40%Possession60%

275Total Passes417

191Accurate Passes320

69%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3