Huddersfield 2–0 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rotherham

S. Thomas 70'

J. Koroma 18'

9/16/2023

Championship · Round 6John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Huddersfield52%

×Draw25%

Rotherham22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.92

Huddersfield

1.56

Rotherham

0.92

Huddersfield creates 70% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.05

creates per match

0.47

1.37

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.05

Rotherham

0.47

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.37

Rotherham

2.06

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Huddersfield-0.05on par

Rotherham-0.05on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

78%

Huddersfield or Rotherham

75%

Draw or Rotherham

48%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

27%

Rotherham wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

79%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

46%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

21%

Rotherham 1+ goals

60%

Rotherham 2+ goals

23%

Rotherham 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

70%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.06 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.05 + Rotherham defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.56

Rotherham attack 0.47 + Huddersfield defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Huddersfield scores more

52%

level

25%

Rotherham scores more

22%

Huddersfield at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Koroma

Huddersfield · M

8.9

Match Events

18'

J. Koroma↳ S. Thomas

55'

R. Edmonds-Green← J. Hogg

55'

A. Appiah← H. Odoffin

65'

Cameron Humphreys

70'

S. Thomas↳ J. Koroma

75'

S. Clucas← O. Rathbone

75'

S. Nombe← A. Green

75'

T. Eaves← J. Hugill

77'

J. Headley← D. Burgzorg

77'

K. Hudlin← K. Harratt

77'

B. Diarra← J. Koroma

88'

Brahima Diarra

90'

D. Kasumu← S. Thomas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldRotherham

Overview

47%Possession53%

15Total Shots7

1.92Expected Goals (xG)0.37

2Corners5

10Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots7

5On Target3

6Off Target3

4Blocked1

8Inside Box3

7Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

316Total Passes355

185Accurate Passes232

59%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls17

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides4