Huddersfield 2–0 QPR: Result & Stats | Championship

Huddersfield

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

QPR

H. Toffolo 39'

J. Koroma 3'

12/5/2020

Championship · Round 16John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Huddersfield38%

×Draw28%

QPR34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchQPR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.11

Huddersfield

1.18

QPR

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 59 away

1.10

creates per match

0.78

1.45

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.10

QPR

0.78

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.45

QPR

1.26

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Huddersfield-0.03on par

QPR+0.08on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

QPR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

66%

Huddersfield or QPR

72%

Draw or QPR

62%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

16%

QPR wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

69%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

33%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

12%

QPR 1+ goals

67%

QPR 2+ goals

30%

QPR 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

52%

QPR (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.45 · 14 matches

QPR away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.26 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.10 + QPR defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

QPR attack 0.78 + Huddersfield defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Huddersfield scores more

38%

level

28%

QPR scores more

34%

Huddersfield at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

J. Koroma

Huddersfield · F

8.6

Match Events

3'

J. Koroma↳ C. Eiting

39'

H. Toffolo↳ J. Koroma

46'

M. Bonne← L. Dykes

56'

D. Ball← G. Cameron

56'

G. Thomas← C. Willock

62'

Dominic Ball

71'

Bright Osayi-Samuel

73'

D. Ward← F. Campbell

73'

J. Bacuna← Pipa Ávila

79'

R. Edmonds-Green← C. Schindler

82'

C. Kelman← B. Osayi-Samuel

82'

A. Adomah← I. Chair

87'

D. Duhaney← I. Mbenza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldQPR

Overview

57%Possession43%

11Total Shots4

3Corners4

15Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots4

6On Target2

3Off Target1

2Blocked1

7Inside Box1

4Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

571Total Passes414

479Accurate Passes323

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls7

0Yellow Cards2

6Offsides3