Huddersfield 2–0 QPR: Result & Stats | Championship

Huddersfield

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

QPR

S. Mounié 61' (pen)

E. Kachunga 57'

2/8/2020

Championship · Round 31John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Huddersfield38%

×Draw28%

QPR34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchQPR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.12

Huddersfield

1.19

QPR

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 60 away

1.10

creates per match

0.79

1.45

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.10

QPR

0.79

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.45

QPR

1.28

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Huddersfield-0.03on par

QPR+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

QPR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

66%

Huddersfield or QPR

72%

Draw or QPR

62%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

16%

QPR wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

70%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

33%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

12%

QPR 1+ goals

67%

QPR 2+ goals

31%

QPR 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

52%

QPR (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.45 · 14 matches

QPR away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.28 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.10 + QPR defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

QPR attack 0.79 + Huddersfield defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Huddersfield scores more

38%

level

28%

QPR scores more

34%

Huddersfield at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

H. Toffolo

Huddersfield · D

8.0

Match Events

27'

Jordan Hugill

41'

Luke Amos

57'

E. Kachunga↳ H. Toffolo

61'

S. MouniéPenalty

67'

J. Clarke← L. Amos

67'

M. Pugh← I. Chair

72'

F. Campbell← S. Mounié

74'

A. King← J. Bacuna

82'

Dominic Ball

87'

A. Oteh← B. Osayi-Samuel

90'

C. Willock← E. Kachunga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldQPR

Overview

44%Possession56%

16Total Shots8

4Corners3

15Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots8

7On Target2

5Off Target4

4Blocked2

10Inside Box3

6Outside Box5

Passing

44%Possession56%

389Total Passes473

296Accurate Passes386

76%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls15

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1