Huddersfield 1–2 Preston: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Preston

F. Campbell 8'

A. Browne 53', 51'

10/24/2020

Championship · Round 7John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Huddersfield40%

×Draw26%

Preston33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.22

Huddersfield

1.36

Preston

1.22

Huddersfield creates 11% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 60 away

1.10

creates per match

0.99

1.45

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.10

Preston

0.99

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.45

Preston

1.62

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Huddersfield-0.03on par

Preston-0.01on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

67%

Huddersfield or Preston

74%

Draw or Preston

60%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

18%

Preston wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

74%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

39%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

16%

Preston 1+ goals

70%

Preston 2+ goals

34%

Preston 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

54%

Preston (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.45 · 14 matches

Preston away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.10 + Preston defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.36

Preston attack 0.99 + Huddersfield defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Huddersfield scores more

40%

level

26%

Preston scores more

33%

Huddersfield at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Browne

Preston · M

9.2

Match Events

8'

F. Campbell↳ L. O'Brien

41'

Christopher Schindler

44'

44'

51'

53'

58'

58'

A. Diakhaby← C. Schindler

66'

Alan Browne

70'

Patrick Bauer

71'

J. Koroma← I. Mbenza

73'

T. Barkhuizen← S. Sinclair

78'

Naby Sarr

85'

S. Maguire← D. Johnson

87'

90'

90'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldPreston

Overview

54%Possession46%

14Total Shots17

8Corners6

12Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots17

4On Target7

5Off Target6

5Blocked4

8Inside Box12

6Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

393Total Passes334

298Accurate Passes237

76%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls14

3Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3