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Huddersfield vs Notts County — League One 2018

Huddersfield
Huddersfield
Preview
14:00
Notts County
Notts County
9/5/2026League OneLeague One · Round 5Accu Stadium
43%
Huddersfield
model favours
43%27%31%

Notts County score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Huddersfield43%
×Draw27%
Notts County31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huddersfield
1.38
Notts County
1.13

Huddersfield creates 22% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 18 away

creates per match

Huddersfield
1.47
Notts County
1.11

allows per match

Huddersfield
1.14
Notts County
1.28

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par
Notts County+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Notts County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw
69%
Huddersfield or Notts County
73%
Draw or Notts County
57%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+
20%
Notts County wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals
75%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
40%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
16%
Notts County 1+ goals
68%
Notts County 2+ goals
31%
Notts County 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)
58%
Notts County (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

Notts County away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.47 + Notts County defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.38

Notts County attack 1.11 + Huddersfield defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Huddersfield scores more
43%
level
27%
Notts County scores more
31%

Huddersfield at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 33% of Notts County’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings
  • Huddersfield fall short of their xG (1.3 vs 1.8 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Huddersfield
LLWLW
County
LLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Huddersfield host Notts County

September 5, 2026: Huddersfield take on Notts County in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Huddersfield host Notts County at Accu Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.