Huddersfield 0–1 Millwall: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Millwall

S. Malone 4'

1/20/2021

Championship · Round 25John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Huddersfield35%

×Draw27%

Millwall38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.29

Huddersfield

1.22

Millwall

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 61 away

1.10

creates per match

1.12

1.45

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.10

Millwall

1.12

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.45

Millwall

1.33

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Huddersfield-0.03on par

Millwall-0.07on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

62%

Huddersfield or Millwall

73%

Draw or Millwall

65%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

15%

Millwall wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

70%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

34%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

12%

Millwall 1+ goals

72%

Millwall 2+ goals

37%

Millwall 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

48%

Millwall (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.45 · 14 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.33 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.10 + Millwall defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Millwall attack 1.12 + Huddersfield defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Huddersfield scores more

35%

level

27%

Millwall scores more

38%

Millwall at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

S. Malone

Millwall · M

7.9

Match Events

4'

S. Malone↳ D. McNamara

60'

I. Mbenza← D. Ward

68'

P. Jones← R. Aarons

69'

Dan McNamara

75'

M. Romeo← D. McNamara

75'

S. Ferguson← S. Williams

75'

T. Bradshaw← J. Wallace

76'

K. Zohorè← J. Böðvarsson

80'

Ryan Woods

85'

A. Pritchard← R. Keogh

85'

K. Phillips← J. Bacuna

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldMillwall

Overview

68%Possession32%

8Total Shots6

3Corners7

13Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots6

1On Target1

6Off Target2

1Blocked3

6Inside Box4

2Outside Box2

Passing

68%Possession32%

629Total Passes282

553Accurate Passes202

88%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2