Huddersfield 1–2 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Middlesbrough

L. Daniels 90+3' (OG)

D. Watmore 23', 16'

11/27/2021

Championship · Round 20John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Huddersfield31%

×Draw26%

Middlesbrough43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.42

Huddersfield

1.16

Middlesbrough

1.42

Middlesbrough creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 65 away

1.08

creates per match

1.39

1.46

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.08

Middlesbrough

1.39

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.46

Middlesbrough

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Middlesbrough+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

57%

Huddersfield or Middlesbrough

74%

Draw or Middlesbrough

69%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

12%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

69%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

32%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

11%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

76%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

41%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

42%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.24 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.08 + Middlesbrough defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Middlesbrough attack 1.39 + Huddersfield defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Huddersfield scores more

31%

level

26%

Middlesbrough scores more

43%

Middlesbrough at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

D. Watmore

Middlesbrough · F

9.2

Match Events

16'

D. Watmore↳ I. Jones

23'

D. Watmore↳ M. Crooks

37'

O. Turton← M. Pearson

60'

F. Campbell← D. Holmes

73'

J. Koroma← H. Toffolo

77'

O. Hernández← D. Watmore

80'

85'

88'

90+1'

90+3'

L. DanielsOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldMiddlesbrough

Overview

51%Possession49%

8Total Shots10

5Corners1

11Fouls6

Shots

8Total Shots10

1On Target6

4Off Target2

3Blocked2

5Inside Box10

3Outside Box0

Passing

51%Possession49%

489Total Passes494

396Accurate Passes403

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls6

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1