Huddersfield 3–2 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Middlesbrough

J. Koroma 85'

F. Campbell 45'

C. Eiting 37'

B. Assombalonga 83' (pen)

M. Johnson 14'

11/28/2020

Championship · Round 14John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Huddersfield31%

×Draw26%

Middlesbrough43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.42

Huddersfield

1.17

Middlesbrough

1.42

Middlesbrough creates 21% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 65 away

1.10

creates per match

1.39

1.45

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.10

Middlesbrough

1.39

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.45

Middlesbrough

1.24

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Huddersfield-0.03on par

Middlesbrough+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

57%

Huddersfield or Middlesbrough

74%

Draw or Middlesbrough

69%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

13%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

69%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

33%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

11%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

76%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

41%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

42%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.45 · 14 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.24 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.10 + Middlesbrough defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Middlesbrough attack 1.39 + Huddersfield defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Huddersfield scores more

31%

level

26%

Middlesbrough scores more

43%

Middlesbrough at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

J. Koroma

Huddersfield · F

7.9

Match Events

14'

M. Johnson↳ M. Tavernier

30'

R. Edmonds-Green← R. Stearman

37'

C. Eiting↳ J. Koroma

45'

F. Campbell↳ L. O'Brien

56'

Paddy McNair

64'

Jonathan Howson

66'

Fraizer Campbell

66'

C. Akpom← M. Tavernier

68'

Juninho Bacuna

76'

Anfernee Dijksteel

78'

D. Duhaney← J. Bacuna

78'

D. Ward← F. Campbell

83'

Naby Sarr

83'

B. AssombalongaPenalty

85'

J. Koroma↳ H. Toffolo

88'

D. Watmore← A. Dijksteel

90'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldMiddlesbrough

Overview

62%Possession38%

13Total Shots10

5Corners9

17Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots10

5On Target3

4Off Target3

4Blocked4

10Inside Box7

3Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

459Total Passes267

339Accurate Passes156

74%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls12

4Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Huddersfield vs Middlesbrough

Huddersfield beat Middlesbrough 3-2 in Championship on November 28, 2020.

Goals: M. Johnson (14'), C. Eiting (37'), F. Campbell (45'), B. Assombalonga (83' pen), J. Koroma (85').

Huddersfield controlled possession (62%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at John Smith's Stadium in Huddersfield, West Yorkshire.

Huddersfield vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Huddersfield vs Middlesbrough