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Huddersfield vs Luton — Championship 2018

Huddersfield
Huddersfield
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Luton
Luton
E. Lee 71'
S. Bradley 49'
7/10/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 43John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Huddersfield41%
×Draw27%
Luton32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huddersfield
1.33
Luton
1.16

Huddersfield creates 15% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 21 away

creates per match

Huddersfield
1.08
Luton
0.85

allows per match

Huddersfield
1.46
Luton
1.59

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par
Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw
68%
Huddersfield or Luton
73%
Draw or Luton
59%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+
19%
Luton wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals
74%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
38%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
15%
Luton 1+ goals
69%
Luton 2+ goals
32%
Luton 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)
56%
Luton (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.08 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Luton attack 0.85 + Huddersfield defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Huddersfield scores more
41%
level
27%
Luton scores more
32%

Huddersfield at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
S. BradleyLutonLuton · D
7.9

Match Events

38'
Fraizer Campbell
49'
S. Bradley↳ J. Bree
55'
S. Mounié← F. Campbell
64'
J. Bacuna← L. OBrien
64'
A. King← J. Hogg
68'
C. McManaman← H. Cornick
71'
E. Lee
75'
A. Pritchard← C. Willock
80'
D. Hylton← J. Collins
80'
K. LuaLua← E. Lee
85'
Juninho Bacuna
90'
Andrew Shinnie
90+5'
M. Cranie← A. Shinnie

Possession

60%Huddersfield

Shots

11Huddersfield

Pass accuracy

54%Huddersfield

Statistics

HuddersfieldLuton
Overview
60%Possession40%
11Total Shots6
6Corners2
19Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots6
2On Target2
5Off Target3
4Blocked1
6Inside Box3
5Outside Box3
Passing
60%Possession40%
494Total Passes339
407Accurate Passes242
82%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
19Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Huddersfield vs Luton

Luton beat Huddersfield 2-0 in Championship on July 10, 2020.

Goals: S. Bradley (49'), E. Lee (71').

Huddersfield controlled possession (60%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at John Smith's Stadium in Huddersfield, West Yorkshire.