Huddersfield 2–0 Hull City: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hull City

D. Holmes 73'

T. Lees 9'

10/16/2021

Championship · Round 12John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Huddersfield38%

×Draw26%

Hull City36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.28

Huddersfield

1.32

Hull City

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 58 away

1.10

creates per match

1.11

1.45

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.10

Hull City

1.11

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.45

Hull City

1.54

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Huddersfield-0.03on par

Hull City+0.06on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

64%

Huddersfield or Hull City

74%

Draw or Hull City

62%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

17%

Hull City wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

73%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

38%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

15%

Hull City 1+ goals

72%

Hull City 2+ goals

37%

Hull City 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

51%

Hull City (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.45 · 14 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.54 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.10 + Hull City defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.32

Hull City attack 1.11 + Huddersfield defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Huddersfield scores more

38%

level

26%

Hull City scores more

36%

Huddersfield at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

T. Lees

Huddersfield · D

8.3

Match Events

1'

9'

28'

43'

56'

G. Docherty← R. Smallwood

64'

S. High← D. Sinani

67'

T. Eaves← T. Smith

71'

O. Turton← M. Pearson

71'

G. Moncur← G. Honeyman

73'

D. Holmes↳ S. Thomas

75'

N. Sarr← S. Thomas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldHull

Overview

41%Possession59%

12Total Shots9

4Corners5

8Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots9

4On Target2

5Off Target4

3Blocked3

2Inside Box6

10Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

317Total Passes452

254Accurate Passes386

80%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3