Huddersfield 3–0 Hull City: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hull City

E. Kachunga 82'

J. Bacuna 74'

K. Ahearne-Grant 68'

10/5/2019

Championship · Round 11John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Huddersfield38%

×Draw26%

Hull City36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.28

Huddersfield

1.32

Hull City

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 58 away

1.10

creates per match

1.11

1.45

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.10

Hull City

1.11

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.45

Hull City

1.54

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Huddersfield-0.03on par

Hull City+0.06on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

64%

Huddersfield or Hull City

74%

Draw or Hull City

62%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

17%

Hull City wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

73%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

38%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

15%

Hull City 1+ goals

72%

Hull City 2+ goals

37%

Hull City 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

51%

Hull City (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.45 · 14 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.54 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.10 + Hull City defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.32

Hull City attack 1.11 + Huddersfield defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Huddersfield scores more

38%

level

26%

Hull City scores more

36%

Huddersfield at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

K. Grabara

Huddersfield · G

8.0

Match Events

32'

Jonathan Hogg

58'

J. Bowler← G. Honeyman

59'

Leonardo Lopes← D. Batty

63'

Jaden Brown

67'

J. Bacuna← J. Hogg

68'

K. Ahearne-Grant↳ J. Bacuna

74'

J. Bacuna↳ A. Diakhaby

75'

J. Stankovič← T. Chalobah

75'

J. Magennis← K. Grosicki

77'

F. Campbell← A. Diakhaby

82'

E. Kachunga↳ L. O'Brien

90'

Lewis O'Brien

90'

Josh Magennis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldHull

Overview

58%Possession42%

8Total Shots14

5Corners4

13Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots14

5On Target4

3Off Target5

0Blocked5

6Inside Box8

2Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

450Total Passes319

364Accurate Passes233

81%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4