Huddersfield 1–2 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol City

J. Koroma 43'

J. Paterson 83'

J. Dasilva 77'

11/3/2020

Championship · Round 10John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Huddersfield35%

×Draw27%

Bristol City38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.27

Huddersfield

1.22

Bristol City

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 62 away

1.10

creates per match

1.10

1.45

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.10

Bristol City

1.10

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.45

Bristol City

1.34

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Huddersfield-0.03on par

Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

62%

Huddersfield or Bristol City

73%

Draw or Bristol City

65%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

15%

Bristol City wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

70%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

34%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

12%

Bristol City 1+ goals

72%

Bristol City 2+ goals

36%

Bristol City 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

48%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.45 · 14 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.10 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Huddersfield defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Huddersfield scores more

35%

level

27%

Bristol City scores more

38%

Bristol City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

J. Dasilva

Bristol City · M

8.5

Match Events

43'

J. Koroma↳ I. Mbenza

59'

F. Diedhiou← T. Rowe

68'

A. Semenyo← N. Wells

68'

J. Paterson← C. Brunt

72'

Naby Sarr

75'

Ben Hamer

75'

C. Eiting← J. Koroma

77'

J. Dasilva↳ A. Semenyo

79'

A. Diakhaby← I. Mbenza

83'

J. Paterson↳ J. Dasilva

86'

M. Daly← C. Schindler

90'

Jonathan Hogg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldBristol

Overview

62%Possession38%

7Total Shots10

3Corners4

15Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots10

2On Target3

3Off Target7

2Blocked0

4Inside Box6

3Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

615Total Passes355

508Accurate Passes255

83%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls10

3Yellow Cards0

2Offsides3