Huddersfield 2–1 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol City

K. Ahearne-Grant 63' (pen)

C. Willock 39'

F. Diedhiou 88'

2/25/2020

Championship · Round 35John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Huddersfield35%

×Draw27%

Bristol City38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.27

Huddersfield

1.22

Bristol City

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 62 away

1.10

creates per match

1.10

1.45

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.10

Bristol City

1.10

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.45

Bristol City

1.34

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Huddersfield-0.03on par

Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

62%

Huddersfield or Bristol City

73%

Draw or Bristol City

65%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

15%

Bristol City wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

70%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

34%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

12%

Bristol City 1+ goals

72%

Bristol City 2+ goals

36%

Bristol City 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

48%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.45 · 14 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.10 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Huddersfield defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Huddersfield scores more

35%

level

27%

Bristol City scores more

38%

Bristol City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

C. Schindler

Huddersfield · D

7.8

Match Events

11'

17'

18'

33'

39'

C. Willock↳ E. Smith Rowe

45'

Tomáš Kalas

46'

Á. Nagy← M. Henriksen

46'

N. Eliasson← F. Benković

63'

K. Ahearne-GrantPenalty

70'

Lewis O'Brien

70'

J. Bacuna← C. Willock

74'

S. Mounié← F. Campbell

74'

A. Weimann← T. Rowe

88'

F. Diedhiou

89'

Andreas Weimann

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldBristol

Overview

52%Possession48%

20Total Shots8

2Corners2

7Fouls12

Shots

20Total Shots8

6On Target3

8Off Target2

6Blocked3

13Inside Box4

7Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

421Total Passes379

311Accurate Passes248

74%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Huddersfield vs Bristol City

Huddersfield beat Bristol City 2-1 in Championship on February 25, 2020.

Goals: C. Willock (39'), K. Ahearne-Grant (63' pen), F. Diedhiou (88').

Huddersfield controlled possession (52%) and registered 20 shots to 8.

The match was played at John Smith's Stadium in Huddersfield, West Yorkshire.

Huddersfield vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Huddersfield vs Bristol City