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Huddersfield vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Huddersfield
Huddersfield
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Birmingham
Birmingham
F. Campbell 55'
L. Jutkiewicz 78'
11/23/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 17John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Huddersfield37%
×Draw28%
Birmingham35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huddersfield
1.23
Birmingham
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 34 away

creates per match

Huddersfield
1.10
Birmingham
0.94

allows per match

Huddersfield
1.45
Birmingham
1.35

finishing

Huddersfield-0.03on par
Birmingham-0.23scores less

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw
65%
Huddersfield or Birmingham
72%
Draw or Birmingham
63%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+
16%
Birmingham wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals
71%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
35%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
13%
Birmingham 1+ goals
70%
Birmingham 2+ goals
33%
Birmingham 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)
51%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.45 · 14 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.10 + Birmingham defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.23

Birmingham attack 0.94 + Huddersfield defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Huddersfield scores more
37%
level
28%
Birmingham scores more
35%

Huddersfield at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
M. RobertsBirminghamBirmingham · D
7.7

Match Events

10'
Jonathan Hogg
26'
Jake Clarke-Salter
55'
F. Campbell↳ T. Chalobah
63'
J. Montero← J. Maghoma
64'
Álvaro Giménez← Jérémie Bela
68'
A. Diakhaby← F. Campbell
77'
T. Kongolo← A. Pritchard
78'
L. Jutkiewicz↳ M. Roberts
80'
J. McEachran← J. Bellingham

Possession

47%Huddersfield

Shots

17Huddersfield

Pass accuracy

50%Huddersfield

Statistics

HuddersfieldBirmingham
Overview
47%Possession53%
17Total Shots11
5Corners2
9Fouls16
Shots
17Total Shots11
6On Target2
3Off Target7
8Blocked2
8Inside Box10
9Outside Box1
Passing
47%Possession53%
383Total Passes423
287Accurate Passes317
75%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls16
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Championship: Huddersfield 1–1 Birmingham

Huddersfield and Birmingham drew 1-1 in Championship on November 23, 2019.

Goals: F. Campbell (55'), L. Jutkiewicz (78').

Birmingham controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 17.

The match was played at John Smith's Stadium in Huddersfield, West Yorkshire.