Huarte 1–1 Txantrea: Result & Stats

Huarte

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Txantrea

1/7/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 15Estadio Areta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Huarte50%

×Draw24%

Txantrea26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuarteExpected goals in this matchTxantrea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.17

Huarte

1.70

Txantrea

1.17

Huarte creates 45% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 109 away

1.79

creates per match

1.28

1.05

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Huarte

1.79

Txantrea

1.28

allows per match

Huarte

1.05

Txantrea

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huarte+0.00on par

Txantrea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huarte ↓

Txantrea →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Huarte or draw

74%

Huarte or Txantrea

76%

Draw or Txantrea

50%

Winning margin

Huarte wins by 2+

27%

Txantrea wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Huarte 1+ goals

82%

Huarte 2+ goals

51%

Huarte 3+ goals

24%

Txantrea 1+ goals

69%

Txantrea 2+ goals

33%

Txantrea 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Huarte (draw refunded)

65%

Txantrea (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Huarte at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.05 · 107 matches

Txantrea away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.60 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Huarte attack 1.79 + Txantrea defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.70

Txantrea attack 1.28 + Huarte defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Huarte scores more

50%

level

24%

Txantrea scores more

26%

Huarte at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Huarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff