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Huarte vs Cantolagua — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Huarte
Huarte
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Cantolagua
Cantolagua
5/1/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 2nd Phase - 3Estadio Areta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Huarte48%
×Draw25%
Cantolagua27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huarte
1.60
Cantolagua
1.12

Huarte creates 43% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 77 away

creates per match

Huarte
1.79
Cantolagua
1.19

allows per match

Huarte
1.05
Cantolagua
1.42

finishing

Huarte+0.00on par
Cantolagua+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huarte ↓

Cantolagua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Huarte or draw
73%
Huarte or Cantolagua
75%
Draw or Cantolagua
52%

Winning margin

Huarte wins by 2+
25%
Cantolagua wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Huarte 1+ goals
80%
Huarte 2+ goals
47%
Huarte 3+ goals
22%
Cantolagua 1+ goals
67%
Cantolagua 2+ goals
31%
Cantolagua 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Huarte (draw refunded)
64%
Cantolagua (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huarte at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.05 · 107 matches

Cantolagua away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.42 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huarte attack 1.79 + Cantolagua defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.60

Cantolagua attack 1.19 + Huarte defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Huarte scores more
48%
level
25%
Cantolagua scores more
27%

Huarte at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Huarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huarte vs Cantolagua

Huarte and Cantolagua drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Areta in Uharte.