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Hsc 21 vs OSS '20 — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Hsc 21
Hsc 21
FT
0 – 3
OSS '20
OSS '20
3/1/2020Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 23Sportpark Groot Scholtenhagen (Haaksbergen)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Hsc 2149%
×Draw22%
OSS '2030%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hsc 21
1.98
OSS '20
1.51

Hsc 21 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 65 away

creates per match

Hsc 21
2.29
OSS '20
1.48

allows per match

Hsc 21
1.54
OSS '20
1.66

finishing

Hsc 21+0.00on par
OSS '20+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hsc 21 ↓

OSS '20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Hsc 21 or draw
70%
Hsc 21 or OSS '20
78%
Draw or OSS '20
51%

Winning margin

Hsc 21 wins by 2+
28%
OSS '20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hsc 21 1+ goals
86%
Hsc 21 2+ goals
59%
Hsc 21 3+ goals
31%
OSS '20 1+ goals
78%
OSS '20 2+ goals
44%
OSS '20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hsc 21 (draw refunded)
62%
OSS '20 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hsc 21 at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.54 · 48 matches

OSS '20 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hsc 21 attack 2.29 + OSS '20 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.98

OSS '20 attack 1.48 + Hsc 21 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hsc 21 scores more
49%
level
22%
OSS '20 scores more
30%

Hsc 21 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hsc 21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hsc 21 0 – 3 OSS '20

OSS '20 beat Hsc 21 3-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Sportpark Groot Scholtenhagen (Haaksbergen).