Hrvatski Dragovoljac 0–1 Dinamo Zagreb II

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Zagreb II

11/9/2018

First NL · Round 12Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić (Zagreb)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac46%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Zagreb II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hrvatski DragovoljacExpected goals in this matchDinamo Zagreb II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.04

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.44

Dinamo Zagreb II

1.04

Hrvatski Dragovoljac creates 38% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 55 away

1.25

creates per match

0.93

1.16

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.25

Dinamo Zagreb II

0.93

allows per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.16

Dinamo Zagreb II

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par

Dinamo Zagreb II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski Dragovoljac ↓

Dinamo Zagreb II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hrvatski Dragovoljac or draw

73%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac or Dinamo Zagreb II

74%

Draw or Dinamo Zagreb II

54%

Winning margin

Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+

23%

Dinamo Zagreb II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals

76%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals

42%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals

18%

Dinamo Zagreb II 1+ goals

65%

Dinamo Zagreb II 2+ goals

28%

Dinamo Zagreb II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)

63%

Dinamo Zagreb II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

Dinamo Zagreb II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.62 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 1.25 + Dinamo Zagreb II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.44

Dinamo Zagreb II attack 0.93 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more

46%

level

26%

Dinamo Zagreb II scores more

27%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hrvatski Dragovoljac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff