Hradec Králové 1–1 Plzen: Result & Stats

Hradec Králové

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Plzen

11/25/2023

Czech Liga · Round 16Malšovická Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Hradec Králové43%

×Draw24%

Plzen33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hradec KrálovéExpected goals in this matchPlzen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.45

Hradec Králové

1.69

Plzen

1.45

Hradec Králové creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.23

creates per match

1.41

1.49

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Hradec Králové

1.23

Plzen

1.41

allows per match

Hradec Králové

1.49

Plzen

2.14

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Hradec Králové+0.44scores more

Plzen+0.02on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hradec Králové ↓

Plzen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Hradec Králové or draw

67%

Hradec Králové or Plzen

76%

Draw or Plzen

57%

Winning margin

Hradec Králové wins by 2+

23%

Plzen wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hradec Králové 1+ goals

82%

Hradec Králové 2+ goals

50%

Hradec Králové 3+ goals

24%

Plzen 1+ goals

77%

Plzen 2+ goals

42%

Plzen 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Hradec Králové (draw refunded)

57%

Plzen (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hradec Králové at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.49 · 6 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hradec Králové attack 1.23 + Plzen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.69

Plzen attack 1.41 + Hradec Králové defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hradec Králové scores more

43%

level

24%

Plzen scores more

33%

Hradec Králové at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hradec Králové will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff