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Hradec Králové U19 vs Karviná U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Hradec Králové U19
Hradec Králové U19
FT
0 – 4
Karviná U19
Karviná U19
10/16/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 12Areál SCM Bavlna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Hradec Králové U1953%
×Draw22%
Karviná U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hradec Králové U19
1.95
Karviná U19
1.29

Hradec Králové U19 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 63 away

creates per match

Hradec Králové U19
1.61
Karviná U19
1.24

allows per match

Hradec Králové U19
1.35
Karviná U19
2.29

finishing

Hradec Králové U19+0.00on par
Karviná U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hradec Králové U19 ↓

Karviná U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Hradec Králové U19 or draw
75%
Hradec Králové U19 or Karviná U19
78%
Draw or Karviná U19
47%

Winning margin

Hradec Králové U19 wins by 2+
30%
Karviná U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hradec Králové U19 1+ goals
86%
Hradec Králové U19 2+ goals
58%
Hradec Králové U19 3+ goals
31%
Karviná U19 1+ goals
72%
Karviná U19 2+ goals
37%
Karviná U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hradec Králové U19 (draw refunded)
68%
Karviná U19 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hradec Králové U19 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

Karviná U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.29 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hradec Králové U19 attack 1.61 + Karviná U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.95

Karviná U19 attack 1.24 + Hradec Králové U19 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hradec Králové U19 scores more
53%
level
22%
Karviná U19 scores more
25%

Hradec Králové U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hradec Králové U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hradec Králové U19 vs Karviná U19

Karviná U19 beat Hradec Králové U19 4-0 in 1. Liga U19 on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Areál SCM Bavlna in Hradec Králové.