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Hradec Králové U19 vs Baník Ostrava U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Hradec Králové U19
Hradec Králové U19
CANC
11:00
Baník Ostrava U19
Baník Ostrava U19
4/3/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 10Všesportovní stadion UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Hradec Králové U1939%
×Draw24%
Baník Ostrava U1938%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hradec Králové U19
1.60
Baník Ostrava U19
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 77 away

creates per match

Hradec Králové U19
1.61
Baník Ostrava U19
1.81

allows per match

Hradec Králové U19
1.35
Baník Ostrava U19
1.60

finishing

Hradec Králové U19+0.00on par
Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hradec Králové U19 ↓

Baník Ostrava U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hradec Králové U19 or draw
62%
Hradec Králové U19 or Baník Ostrava U19
76%
Draw or Baník Ostrava U19
61%

Winning margin

Hradec Králové U19 wins by 2+
19%
Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hradec Králové U19 1+ goals
80%
Hradec Králové U19 2+ goals
47%
Hradec Králové U19 3+ goals
22%
Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals
79%
Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals
47%
Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hradec Králové U19 (draw refunded)
51%
Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hradec Králové U19 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

Baník Ostrava U19 away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.60 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hradec Králové U19 attack 1.61 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 1.81 + Hradec Králové U19 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hradec Králové U19 scores more
39%
level
24%
Baník Ostrava U19 scores more
38%

Hradec Králové U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hradec Králové U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hradec Králové U19 face Baník Ostrava U19 (1. Liga U19)

1. Liga U19 returns with Hradec Králové U19 hosting Baník Ostrava U19. Match starts April 3, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hradec Králové U19 host Baník Ostrava U19 at Všesportovní stadion UMT.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.