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Hradec Králové II vs Sokol Živanice — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Hradec Králové II
Hradec Králové II
FT
0 – 2
Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
9/20/20203. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 5Areál TJ Slavia Hradec Králové

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Hradec Králové II51%
×Draw23%
Sokol Živanice25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hradec Králové II
1.79
Sokol Živanice
1.19

Hradec Králové II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 64 away

creates per match

Hradec Králové II
1.70
Sokol Živanice
1.14

allows per match

Hradec Králové II
1.25
Sokol Živanice
1.88

finishing

Hradec Králové II+0.00on par
Sokol Živanice+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hradec Králové II ↓

Sokol Živanice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hradec Králové II or draw
75%
Hradec Králové II or Sokol Živanice
77%
Draw or Sokol Živanice
49%

Winning margin

Hradec Králové II wins by 2+
28%
Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hradec Králové II 1+ goals
83%
Hradec Králové II 2+ goals
53%
Hradec Králové II 3+ goals
26%
Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
70%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
33%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hradec Králové II (draw refunded)
67%
Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hradec Králové II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.25 · 79 matches

Sokol Živanice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hradec Králové II attack 1.70 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sokol Živanice attack 1.14 + Hradec Králové II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hradec Králové II scores more
51%
level
23%
Sokol Živanice scores more
25%

Hradec Králové II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hradec Králové II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Hradec Králové II 0–2 Sokol Živanice

Sokol Živanice beat Hradec Králové II 2-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Areál TJ Slavia Hradec Králové in Hradec Králové.