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HPS W vs Ilves W — Kansallinen Liiga 2020

HPS W
HPS W
Preview
11:00
Ilves W
Ilves W
7/25/2026Kansallinen LiigaKansallinen Liiga · Round 14
Big match
42%
HPS W
model favours
42%22%35%

HPS W score first in only 11% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
67%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

HPS W42%
×Draw22%
Ilves W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HPS W
1.81
Ilves W
1.64

HPS W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 64 away

creates per match

HPS W
1.83
Ilves W
1.66

allows per match

HPS W
1.61
Ilves W
1.80

finishing

HPS W+0.00on par
Ilves W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HPS W ↓

Ilves W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

HPS W or draw
65%
HPS W or Ilves W
78%
Draw or Ilves W
58%

Winning margin

HPS W wins by 2+
22%
Ilves W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

HPS W 1+ goals
84%
HPS W 2+ goals
54%
HPS W 3+ goals
27%
Ilves W 1+ goals
81%
Ilves W 2+ goals
49%
Ilves W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

HPS W (draw refunded)
54%
Ilves W (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HPS W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.61 · 64 matches

Ilves W away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.80 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HPS W attack 1.83 + Ilves W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.81

Ilves W attack 1.66 + HPS W defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

HPS W scores more
42%
level
22%
Ilves W scores more
35%

HPS W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "HPS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 72% of HPS W’s matches
  • 67% of HPS W’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
DWDWW
W
WLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: HPS W host Ilves W

July 25, 2026: HPS W take on Ilves W in Kansallinen Liiga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.