Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

HPS W vs HJK W — Kansallinen Liiga 2020

HPS W
HPS W
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 3
HJK W
HJK W
10/7/2023Kansallinen LiigaKansallinen Liiga · Championship Round - 4Paloheinän tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

HPS W28%
×Draw22%
HJK W50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HPS W
1.38
HJK W
1.90

HJK W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 73 away

creates per match

HPS W
1.83
HJK W
2.18

allows per match

HPS W
1.61
HJK W
0.92

finishing

HPS W+0.00on par
HJK W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HPS W ↓

HJK W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

HPS W or draw
50%
HPS W or HJK W
78%
Draw or HJK W
72%

Winning margin

HPS W wins by 2+
12%
HJK W wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

HPS W 1+ goals
75%
HPS W 2+ goals
40%
HPS W 3+ goals
16%
HJK W 1+ goals
85%
HJK W 2+ goals
56%
HJK W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

HPS W (draw refunded)
36%
HJK W (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HPS W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.61 · 64 matches

HJK W away — creates 2.18, concedes 0.92 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HPS W attack 1.83 + HJK W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.38

HJK W attack 2.18 + HPS W defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

HPS W scores more
28%
level
22%
HJK W scores more
50%

HJK W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "HJK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kansallinen Liiga: HPS W 2–4 HJK W

HJK W beat HPS W 4-2 in Kansallinen Liiga on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Paloheinän tekonurmi in Helsinki.